While this may be disappointing for some, based on the data from recent U.S. election years - the Election does not have a major impact on Real Estate. History confirms post-election years result in positive trends in the residential real estate market - but perspective, whether buyer or seller, may determine the final position on this.
According to Keeping Current Matters article: How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Affect Real Estate? infographic data compiled from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shares:
- In 9 of the 11 recent elections, in the year following the election, the volume of home sales increased
- In 7 of the recent 9 elections, the home values (sale prices) also increased
Bankrates article, May 2024: What happens to the housing market in an election year? also confirms the post-election year home value increases:
Case-Shiller data shows that, on average, home prices have climbed 4.84 percent in election years since 1987. In non-election years, values rose 4.44 percent.
What to Consider:
For those buyers or homeowners that say: "I'm going to wait and see what happens after the election", this hope for a continued trend in post-election year "pick-up" in the real estate market, could be in your favor - but really it may depend on if you are a buyer or a seller...and often those moving home are both: selling and buying.
Sellers will appreciate the hopeful increase in home value, however this could be neutralized by a potential influx in homes listed for sale, providing more inventory for buyers, potentially decreasing the liklihood of multiple offers which increase chances of increasing in home values.
Buyers Let's hope an increase in home sales, post election year, means inventory continues to come to market, as buyers always welcome additional options. What's to be determined, is will improved mortgage rates help offest appreciation, supporting affordability?
The reality is that the following factors are the constant driving force behind real estate:
- Affordability - Driven by interest rates, employment/un-employment, home values...which brings us to our next factor
- Inventory - which has been limited for several years, as homeowners willingness to sell their home and buy another swapping their likely low interest rate for a much higher one has to hit a breaking point due to necessity, relocation, or a major change in household
- Beyond the above factors which drive supply and demand there are the over-arching factors of: economy and location - one could argue more aspects are players in what drive residential real estate, but the above are a few of the major levers.
While Presidents and government influence policy that trickles down to the factors that influence the housing market, changes in Real Estate are ever-present and my guidance for home buyers and sellers is for them to evaluate which aspects are most important to them when it comes to buying and/or selling. Usually affordability, timing, location, and right-sizing, are the most important variables. Really this is a question that only the person or family making decisions can answer.
As a Realtor in Orange County, California - my focus is to be the most effective Realtor given the parameters and priorities shared by my clients.
Don't forget to VOTE on November 5, 2024.
For additional data, context, and feedback on our local market or planning your next move - please contact me.
